The Knicks FanBlog

Nobody can accept that anything surrounding the Knicks can ever be straightforward and simple, so observers have continued to incubate outlandish Jeremy Lin scenarios even though the ONLY realistic Jeremy Lin scenario is the one in which he remains a Knick.

Jeremy Lin will remain with the Knicks. Steve Nash will not usurp him. Nor will some other team blow the Knicks away with an offer that the Knicks will be unwilling or unable to match as Alex Kennedy posited today. Such ruminations are good for generating page hits but that is about all that they are good for.

The Knicks will keep Jeremy Lin. This is the only sensible conclusion.

Let’s indulge the line of thought propounded in Kennedy’s piece – certainly, he is not the only pundit advancing it. The Knicks can offer Lin a four year, approximately $20 million contract: approximately $5 million in each year. Other teams, assuming they have the cap space, can offer Lin the same money in each of the first two years and up to about $12.5 million in year 3 and $13.5 million in year 4. All told, another team with the cap space can offer Lin at most a 4 year contract worth roughly $36 million.

The Knicks of course can match. And this is where many pundits’ analysis goes off the rails. Just because another team CAN offer Lin 4 years and $36 million, it doesn’t mean they should, or would. In fact, Kennedy (for whom I have great respect), suggests that the Knicks would have a difficult decision to make if another team forced the Knicks to match a prohibitively large contract offer. But if this kind of money is so outlandish for the Knicks to pay Lin, then why isn’t the same offer similarly outlandish for another team?

Let’s pull the thread and see where it takes us: if 4/$36 is a ridiculous amount for the Knicks to pay Lin, then 4/$36 is a ridiculous amount for another team to pay Lin. If 4/$36 is a ridiculous amount for another team to pay Lin, another team will not offer Lin 4/$36. If another team does not offer Lin 4/$36, the Knicks will not have to match an offer of 4/$36.

(Of course, it is likely that the inverse is also true: If another team offers Lin 4/$36 then that demonstrates that there is a perception that he is worth that amount.)

It is true, as Kennedy points out, that if the Knicks matched such an offer they would pay Lin the approximate 5, 5, 12.5, 13.5 figures in each respective year and the cap hit would match his salary. Any other team would have to pay Lin these amounts in each of the 4 years but the cap hit would be spread evenly across each year, or 9, 9, 9, 9. This amounts to $4 million more against the cap than the team would actually be paying Lin in each of the first two years and 3.5 and 4.5 less in each respective subsequent year. This is still a lot of money to tie up for someone who the Knicks should, as the argument often goes, think twice about signing, since he’s only played a few dozen games.

And it’s a lot of money both in real terms and with respect to cap flexibility, which teams that are under the cap covet as perhaps their primary asset but one which the Knicks needn’t be concerned with at all. This is because the Knicks are capped out through the 2014/15 season, which would be the second to last year of Lin’s hypothetical monstrous contract. The Knicks could pay Lin $5 million that year or they could pay him $50 million and it would likely have little to no impact on their ability to make a single roster move in free agency. Can a team like the Nets or Raptors or Blazers say the same thing about a $9 million salary 3 and 4 years from now for an allegedly unproven player?

Let’s just stop the madness, ok?

Up until now, we’ve been contemplating the Knicks’ impending offseason within the context that they do not own the Bird rights for either Jeremy Lin or Steve Novak and, as such, will be extremely limited in the moves they can make to improve the team. Specifically, if the Knicks want to use their full mid-level exception to retain Lin or to sign another higher-end veteran PG, the team is going to be hard-capped at $74 million and limited to only the bi-annual exception and veteran minimum signings to fill out the remaining spots on the roster.

Yesterday, though, Howard Beck of the New York Times reported that the NBPA intends to challenge, before an arbitrator, Lin’s and Novak’s (among others) status as non-Bird free agents. The players association’s argument  is that, since Lin and Novak were waiver claims, their contracts transferred to the Knicks in the same manner as a traded player’s contract would. Traded players retain their bird rights so players claimed off waivers should as well.

If the NBPA prevails (and, having seen the language in the old CBA concerning waived players, it’s not far-fetched to think they could), it would all but guarantee that Lin and Novak would be re-signed this summer and–this is the kicker–the Knicks would remain armed with, in the best case scenario, their full, non-taxpayer MLE (roughly $5 million dollars) to pursue other free agents. Needless to say, this would open up a whole new world of possibilities.

To summarize:

• No Bird rights for Lin and Novak and the offseason likely consists of re-signing Lin (or chasing a different PG) with the MLE, perhaps re-signing Novak (or signing another lower-tier free agent) with the bi-annual exception, and veteran minimum signings.
• With Bird rights for Lin and Novak the offseason likely consists of re-signing Lin and Novak, signing a player or multiple players with the non-taxpayer MLE (or the taxpayer, mini-MLE), and filling out the roster with veteran minimum signings.

Quite a difference.

(Note: In any scenario where the Knicks re-sign Lin and Novak and add a free agent using their MLE, they will certainly lose the bi-annual exception which, like the non-taxpayer MLE, is only accessible to teams below the $74 million tax apron.)

For the purpose of illustration–and because it’s fun–let’s look at potential permutations in this very awesome alternate universe:

1. Knicks re-sign Lin and Novak. If the NBPA wins the challenge and their Bird rights attach, these moves become no-brainers.

2 (Scenario A). Knicks sign O.J. Mayo with their non-taxpayer MLE. For my money, this would be the single best addition the Knicks could realistically make this offseason at the MLE price point. Mayo is what we wish J.R. Smith was: a sweet-shooting, solid all-around two guard in his mid-20s who plays relatively disciplined defense. He’s formed an effective pairing at SG with Tony Allen in Memphis and would similarly compliment Shumpert in the backcourt here. Most importantly, he’s a very good fit with Carmelo Anthony as a guy who can consistently make 3 pointers off the catch.

There are some significant caveats here: First, he’s a restricted free agent so the Grizzlies can match any offer. Memphis has a lot of money tied up in other players, so it’s possible they’d decline to match (the Grizzlies owner has already declared they won’t go over the luxury tax). But at the mid-level Mayo might just offer too much value for the Grizzlies to let him get away. Second, depending on what Lin and Novak command, the Knicks might get pushed above the $74 million apron. If that happened, the team would only have access to the mini, taxpayer MLE of $3 million, and that certainly wouldn’t be enough for Mayo. (More on the mini-MLE in a minute.)

Or, if Mayo proves unobtainable…

2 (Scenario B). The Knicks sign Ray Allen with NT-MLE. Allen offers all the same things that Mayo does, but with championship experience to boot. Only thing is he’s 12 years older and doesn’t provide long-term value. I’m sure there are some out there (the “built to win now” crowd) who’d prefer Allen to Mayo but, if I have a choice between adding a 24-year-old who can be a core piece for years or a 36-year-old at the end of his career, I’m taking the young guy every time.

2 (Scenario C). Use the NT-MLE on a high-end, veteran PG. No, not Steve Nash, because someone else is going to offer him more money than that and he’s going to take it (believe it). But perhaps someone like Andre Miller, who has a lot of experience, is habitually undervalued, and can reliably pilot a playoff team while Lin grows into the role.

2 (Scenario D). Split the NT-MLE between a couple of players. Probably in the backcourt, using half on a shooter and the other half on a backup PG. I like this option the least. If you have the chance, in my opinion it’s better to add one higher-quality player than several lesser ones.

Now, about the taxpayer mini-MLE…

2 (Scenario E). Use the mini-MLE on a backup PG. If bringing back Lin and Novak pushes the Knicks over the apron and they only have access to the mini-MLE, I think the team could squeeze the most value out of it by spending it on a veteran backup PG for Lin. The free agent market this offseason is over-saturated with marginal veteran PGs. By marginal, I don’t mean PGs that are struggling to stick in the league. I’m referring to guys that could start in some situations but if they’re presently starting for you, you’re in the market for an upgrade. Think Kirk Hinrich, Ray Felton,  D.J Augustin, Jordan Farmar. Guys like that.

3. Re-sign Landry Fields. Fields is a restricted free agent and, in his case, there is no dispute that the Knicks own his Bird rights. He gets a separate section from Lin and Novak because it’s less clear whether the Knicks should retain him. I like Fields but only at a certain (pretty low) price. If he can be re-signed at an appropriate price, it certainly wouldn’t hurt to have him around. I’d be surprised if, coming off a very inconsistent season, Fields gets a substantial offer from anyone and, as such, I think he’ll be back on a low-cost deal, at least for next season.

4. Bring back Jared Jeffries on a veteran minimum contract and try to find other veteran minimum bargains to fill out the roster. I think it’s safe to say that we, as fans, grew to appreciate Jared Jeffries this season in a way that we never did when he was making $6 million a year and standing in the way of an earnest run at Lebron James. Nevertheless, while in a vacuum Jeffries is probably worth more than a veteran minimum deal, I don’t think the Knicks should pay him more than that. He tends to get injured and it seems like every season he misses significant time and barely makes it to the finish line. Couple that with the fact that Jorts showed flashes this year and it’s hard to justify spending real money on him. He seems to love it here, and he’s clearly appreciated by his teammates, so it’d be great if he sticks around.

Other than that, hopefully Grunwald can work his magic and unearth another veteran minimum gem or two a la Lin and Novak this season. If the Knicks signed Mayo or Ray Allen using the MLE, as in the examples above, Grunwald would need to find a veteran PG to back up Lin for the veteran minimum. Maybe someone like Keyon Dooling.

 * * *

Chances are, this entire exercise has been a big waste of time (and I apologize for that), as the arbitrator will surely rule against the NBPA (because nothing this good will happen to the Knicks), Lin and Novak will remain without Bird rights, and the Knicks will be faced with the limited player acquisition options I described at the start of this post.

But, as you can see, if the NBPA did win this challenge, it would completely alter the tenor of the Knicks’ offseason.  Next season’s team would shift from one that looks precariously thin with limited ability to add depth to one that is incredibly deep, and armed with another cornerstone player.

Cross your fingers.

Since the Heat dispatched the Knicks about 36 hours ago, Knicks fans, as they are wont to do, are annoyingly abuzz about what they perceive to be the myriad possibilities for their beloved squad over the coming months. I write “annoyingly abuzz” because, sometimes we all have a tendency to take a relatively simple situation and overthink it – and that’s precisely what seems to be happening (either that, or pretending Phil Jackson is coming to the Knicks makes for good copy and lots of page clicks).

Let’s start with the most overthought issue: Jeremy Lin. Look, he’s coming back. There’s no real question as to whether he’s coming back. Lin is too valuable both on and off the court (he’s sold 14 infinity linfinity jerseys, ended a cable impasse, and sent MSG shares to new highs out of a multi-week accumulation pattern after nearing its 50 week moving average, or something) for the Knicks to let him walk.

Since this season was essentially a multi-volume telenovela let’s break Lin’s performance down segment by segment:

Linsanity: 2/4-2/19/12.

Performance level: Linsane.

Numbers: 25 ppg, 50% fg%, 33% 3pt%, 9.2 assts, 2.2 stls, 3.7 rbs, 38 mpg, in 9 games.

***

Return of ‘Melo, D’Antoni coach: 2/20-3/12/12

Performance level: Not as Linsane but still like, WTF.

Numbers: 16.2 ppg, 39% fg%, 33% 3pt%, 7.8 assts, 2.5 stls, 3.5 rbs, 34 mpg, in 11 games.

***

D’onetoni, Woodson: 3/14-3/24/12

Performance level: Least Linsane, but also least minutes. Still very good.

Numbers: 13.2 ppg, 43% fg%, 30% 3pt%, 5.4 assts, 1 stl, 4 rbs, 28 mpg, in 7 games.

All told, from Linsanity onward (a total of 26 games), Lin averaged 18.4 points on 45% shooting while racking up 7.6 assists per game. And to the people who watched every single one of those games (and who wish to be honest with themselves) it was pretty clear that the kid can play.

The above breakdown should give us both a ceiling and floor from which to evaluate Lin’s worth. To placate Lin’s ubiquitous doubters lets shave 20% off his averages (except his shooting, since there’s no basis from the above to suggest he’d ever shoot as low as 36%). How much should the Knicks be willing to pay a point guard who is would average 14.7 ppg, 6 assts? Well, to answer this question consider what you would pay Kyle Lowry, who averaged 14.3 ppg and 6.6 assts in 47 games this past year. Or Ty Lawson, who put up 16.4 and 6.6 assists?

Is it more than $5 million per season? Good. Now put down your abacuses abaci calculators and breathe a sigh of relief because the Knicks only have to worry about matching offers that are worth up to $5 million in the first year. You know what’s worth $5 million? The mid-level exception. Good. Give it to Lin.

But what about this Nash guy? I hear he loves SoHo. Well, who doesn’t? Would he sacrifice tens of millions of dollars to live there year-round instead of just in the Summer? I’m not convinced. You see, the realities of the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement being what they are, it turns out the Knicks only have one mid-level exception. Shucks. Well, ok. So take it back from Lin and give it two time MVP Steve Nash who 1) wants to win, and 2) doesn’t care about money.

Well if Nash wants to win and doesn’t care about money then he’ll sign with the Heat or the Lakers. If he wants to win but he actually does care about money then he’ll sign with Dallas. If he just cares about money then he’ll sign with Brooklyn or Phoenix (which will reportedly offer him a 2 year $20 million contract).

But he loves SoHo, remember? Well then, I guess if he loves SoHo, and he wants to win, and he doesn’t care about money, then he’ll be happy to take the veterans minimum to play in New York so that the Knicks can match any offer for Lin in order to retain the depth that will help him win in New York. Word is he’s managed his money well but it’s hard for me to fathom that he would leave from $15-$30 million on the table to sign with New York and make less money than his backup. Especially after his recent divorce.

But that’s neither here nor there because the Knicks are built to WIN NOW (RIGHT NOW! DO IT!) at all costs and so they should get Nash, even at Lin’s expense, because if they do, they’re basically guaranteed a championship like when the Heat cashed in all their chips  for Shaq and won it all. (They were never at risk of this gambit not working, despite at one point being down 0-2 to the Mavericks in the ‘06 finals. In fact, it wasn’t even a gambit, they were in WIN NOW mode and they were guaranteed a title just like we will be.)

Ok so we’re back to throwing Lin overboard.

But, BUT, hear me out here…what if – and again, just humor me here – what if the Knicks don’t win a title with a 39, 40, or 41 year old Steve Nash running the show? Now it’s 2015/16 and they’ll have Iman Shumpert and five silhouettes with question marks over their faces (a 2012 second round pick, a 2013 first round pick, a 2014 second round pick, and 2015 first and second round picks).

Well, good job, the exchange nets a fading star for a rising one who could still be a building block years after Nash walks/limps/wheels off into the sunset. By the time Nash is 50, Lin would be 35 and potentially still in the league.

Chances are we’ll be thanking Mr. Nash for a services and offering him a seat next to the other geezers and scrubs for whom New York’s teams have exchanged their raw talent, draft picks, or payroll flexibility, like Steve Francis, Antonio McDyess, Eddy Curry, Othella Harrington, Mirsad Turkcan, Mo Vaughn, Victor Zambrano, and Roberto Alomar.

Let’s also just ignore that Lin’s run evoked comparisons from some very smart observers to some historically great players. John Hollinger (Insider) studied Lin’s performance and concluded that his closest statistical comparators were Isiah Thomas, Kevin Johnson, and Russell Westbrook. Carl Bialik undertook a similar exercise and found similarities to John Stockton, Chris Paul and, erm, Steve Nash. And blog buddy Jamie O’Grady saw some Kidd in Lin. As it turns out, “gambit” actually might be the right word to describe the risk of tossing Lin’s potential aside for a few years of Nash’s twilight.

And none of this even addresses how Nash would mesh with the Knicks’ current players. While I have no doubt that Amar’e Stoudemire (“Just have to see what Coach Woodson’s going to do to make it work.”; “I love Steve. It would be great to have him here next year”) and Tyson Chandler (“We have to find a way to get everybody involved, get everyone an opportunity,”; “We have to elevate our teammates,”; “I think we have to do a better job of getting everybody involved, getting everybody playing at a high level and get everybody focused on what we’re trying to accomplish.”; “When you play as individuals you don’t get very far.”) would be thrilled to have Nash aboard, I have a hard time believing that Carmelo Anthony will feel the same way, since, you know, Nash is only effective with the ball in his hands, deciding who gets to shoot, when and where.

Here’s a refresher as to what happened the last time someone tried to take the ball out of ‘Melo’s hands:

When Anthony first returned — and it still appears to be the case — Lin would bring the ball upcourt and try to run D’Antoni’s system. When Anthony would abandon the offense, Lin would not pass him the ball, which irritated Anthony, sources said. So when Lin tried to talk to Anthony on the court, Anthony would turn his back to the point guard and tune him out. The two never had heated exchanges, though, and the players tried to come to a compromise, agreeing to run D’Antoni’s system while also mixing in post-ups for Anthony.

Well, that didn’t work. D’Antoni’s gone now and so is any notion of liberality with the ball. But that is precisely the reason to bring in Nash, who would demand that ‘Melo do some stuff he is not comfortable doing. As the man himself explained during the epic collapse that occurred after Linsanity (which he spectated), but preceded D’Antoni’s demise:

I think anytime you go from the early part of the season, just having the ball and me just having the ball and being the distributor, and now just running the wings and waiting for the ball to come to me, that’s quite an adjustment for myself.

In a nod to…I don’t know…realism…sanity…continuity…stability…all those, rumors have emerged that the Knicks are in preliminary discussions to make Interim Head Coach Mike Woodson a permanent fixture on their bench. My twitter timeline, which I try to populate with fans I consider very smart, has generally greeted this news with a mix of what I’d characterize as ambivalence and annoyance.

I don’t see a lot of outright antipathy for Woodson, as no one seems to dispute that he’s a capable coach who has certainly done a good job this season. What I see are more nuanced concerns about whether his offense is imaginative enough and, tangentially, whether he’s the guy who can, tactically, get the most out of the superstar pairing that will define this era of Knicks basketball. While I’ll concede that those are probably his two biggest weaknesses as a candidate, I still think Woodson is the right coach for this team and the fact that the Knicks appear to be leaning towards keeping him–coupled with their recent retention of Glen Grunwald–has me feeling the most optimistic about the franchise that I have in a while. It’s going to take me a few minutes to get there, but please allow me to explain.

* * *

While I still believe going all-in on 2010 free agency was the right plan–even though it produced neither James nor Wade, one of the side effects was that it created a sense of urgency within the fan base that verges on super-duper unreasonable. All the daydreaming about the Knicks’ seemingly inevitable pairing of James with a second superstar and the multiple championship rings that would surely follow caused fans’ already sky-high expectations to rise even higher and harden into a “championship or bust” mentality. Even the team’s failure to land James (or Wade) in free agency did little to stymie this line of thinking. These days, there’s a segment of the fan base that feels every personnel decision the team makes must move them incrementally closer to winning a championship, no matter how far away, in reality, they are from achieving that lofty goal, and no matter how costly the move is to the franchise’s long-term future.

And the truth is, the Knicks are pretty far away. Don’t get me wrong. This is a very good team, probably third best in the Eastern Conference based on how they performed in the second half of the season under Woodson. At full strength and without an almost comical (tragical?) amount of misfortune, I strongly believe the Knicks would have pushed Miami more during the actual games, even if they couldn’t seriously threaten the outcome of the series. But superstars and fanfare and promises (implied or otherwise) notwithstanding, the Knicks are a team only at the beginning of what hopefully becomes a sustained a run of success.

Last year marked the first time in a decade that the Knicks finished with a winning record, and that team got a total face-lift midseason with the Carmelo Anthony trade. They finished this lockout-shortened season with the equivalent winning percentage of a 45-win team over a normal 82-game tilt. That result included an 8-15 start, an impossible-to-believe 7 game winning streak spearheaded by a Taiwanese PG who emerged from NBA marginalia while the Knicks two superstars sat, a subsequent walls-are-crumbling losing streak that caused Mike D’Antoni to resign with the team at 18-24, and an improbable 18-6 finish under Woodson that saw the Knicks realistically gunning for, and only narrowly missing out on, the division title. It was a crazy, topsy-turvy season, not the type of season you’d expect a serious championship contender to endure, and certainly not the type of season that screams out “If only we had _____, we’d win the whole thing.” (Unless we’re filling that “____” with “Lebron”.)

It was the type of season you can build on, though, and in the short and medium term, the Knicks have a lot going for them.  What the franchise needs to do at this moment is take stock of who they are and where they stand within the context of the East and the NBA and, rather than chase ghosts of 2010, continue to build rationally on this very promising thing they’ve got going. To me, the fact that Grunwald and Co. are prepared to move forward with Woodson indicates (1) that they think they’re onto something (I agree), (2) that they’re realists about who they are right now and (3) that they crave stability and continuity. For a franchise that’s been out in the wilderness (and out to lunch) for so long, these all seem like good things.

* * *

For most teams, greatness is a process. Players rarely just come together, find instant chemistry, and voila, championship.  It’s happened, but when it has it’s been because the team gelled unusually quickly (See 2008 Celtics, 2006 Heat) or simply had overwhelming talent that allowed it to overcome chemistry deficiencies (See the Heat of today, though, significantly, they haven’t won anything and nothing is promised to them this season either). For everyone else it seems, greatness, if it’s ever even achieved, is the hard-won reward for years of collectively grinding through 55-win regular seasons and bitter, lesson-infused playoff losses. For most, these steps can’t be skipped and, by now, it should be apparent to all the Knicks won’t be doing any skipping.

The first step in this process is putting together a team that has the talent to make the playoffs (mission accomplished), but the next step is building an organizational culture that renders making the playoffs a foregone conclusion. That’s where the Knicks are now. They have the talent to be a perennial playoff team. In fact, they have the talent to be a perennial top-4 team in the conference. The challenge now is imbuing the franchise, up and down, with the sentiment that winning is expected and anything less is unacceptable. Mike Woodson seems very well suited to guide the Knicks through this phase. In fact, it seems like he’s already begun.

We’ve all laughed at how frequently Woodson talked about instilling within his team and his individual players “accountability” for their actions on and off the court, and it is funny how much of a buzz-word he made it, but I’d submit that the “accountability” thing was pretty brilliant in its simplicity. When Woodson took over, he was staring at two superstar forwards, a center who would go on to be voted DPOY, a rookie guard proving to be one of the best one-on-one defenders in the game, Jeremy Lin, and a mob(b) (deep) of talented bench guys who, by many accounts, were routintely killing the starters in practice. In addition, the Knicks had an offense that had been designed by a coach who is still generally regarded as the finest offensive mind in the game and a defense that Woodson himself designed, was top-10, and he surely believed in. Surveying that landscape, it took an intelligent and restrained man to conclude that what needed to change most was that the players needed to play hard and take winning a little more personally. The Knicks problems weren’t with talent or acumen.  They were with culture and, yes, accountability. (And, of course, getting your coach-killing superstar to buy in.)

In short order Woodson’s imprint changed a loosey goosey, “I’m ok, you’re ok” team into one that expects to win, and makes demands on each other in the name of winning. Even better, he’s done this while preserving what was already a strong locker room and seemingly without alienating any particular players. Maybe this is easy to do and any coach could do it, but I doubt it.

 * * *

I’ll concede that Woodson isn’t the strongest Xs and Os coach available. In particular, he isn’t the most imaginative and he’s not the best tactician. He’s by no means bad at these aspects of the job (people seem to forget how much more varied the offense was as the team went 6-1 before Stoudemire and, particularly, Lin went down), but no one’s going to mistake him for Stan Van Gundy. Likewise, I’ll concede that he doesn’t bring Phil Jackson’s championship gravitas. I’ll even concede that it’s likely he won’t be the Knicks coach the next time the team raises a championship banner to the Garden rafters (I continue to believe this will happen someday).

But what if the Knicks hired Stan Van Gundy and he failed to connect with this group of players? What if he sowed discord in the locker room and his shrill, hard-driving personality pushed the Knicks further away from their goals instead of bringing them closer? And what if Phil actually did come and simply couldn’t summon the energy to coach a developing team through its inevitable growing pains, particularly knowing that it might not be good enough to someday win him another ring? In short, what if both of these guys are better coaches than Woodson but aren’t as well suited to coach the Knicks at this moment? It’s at least possible, right?

Moreover, to the extent these are potential problems with Woodson, they’re for another day. The Knicks first need to establish themselves as a top-tier playoff team before they can start trying to get over the hump. No matter how badly we want them to be, they aren’t there yet. They first need to work on today’s issues, something that Woodson is doing very well. Woodson’s deal isn’t done yet, but the fact that it appears the team realizes all of this is why I’m so pleased about the potential hire. It’s not just that I think he’s a solid coach. It’s that extending Woodson is evidence of long-term thinking and good process, two things that have been in too-short supply around MSG for ages.

For the first time in a decade, it seems as though the Knicks have taken stock of their position and, instead of worrying about ticket prices, or jersey sales, or media perception, they’re taking the long view. They’ve surveyed and said,  ”The GM built a good roster with good players in their prime and good developing players and we have a good coach the team plays hard for. We don’t need hire or fire anyone and we don’t need to trade anyone. Now we can get started.”

Finally.

With the news that Tyson Chandler will win the Defensive Player of the Year Award this season I thought I’d mess around with Basketball-Reference and try to put some perspective on the feats the Knicks’ new enforcer was able to accomplish. Specifically, I wanted to determine how long it’s been since the Knicks finished the season ranked as high or higher than they did this season in  Defensive Rating (number of points allowed per defensive possession). Here is what I found:

As you can see I had to go back 11 years. The Knicks’ DRtg this season is their highest since Jeff Van Gundy’s last full year as coach – when Marcus Camby patrolled the paint – and not coincidentally their winning percentage is at its peak level since that time.

And while it’s interesting to look at other factors for the teams’ defensive resurgence, I can only give Mike Woodson some of the credit, since readers of this space (and my Twitter feed) know that this season, the Knicks DRtg hovered in the 5-10 range regardless of the coach. So much respect to Tyson Chandler, who deservedly brings home the first DPOY award bestowed on a Knick in franchise history.

Steve Novak is like, soooooooo good from 3. In fact he’s leading the NBA in percentage. But what happens when teams like the Bulls or Heat stay at home on him? Novak is elite at what he does well (3 pointers) but that’s basically the only thing you can say he really does well (although he’s probably not given credit for doing some other things adequately).

So he’s worthless when he’s covered right?

Judging by Twitter chatter there’s plenty of fans who think that if the defense is dictating that Novak is not going to get an open look from deep, then his value is parched and withered, and that Woodson should bench him.

That’s probably wrong. The right thing to do with Novak is probably to run him around screens if the D is playing him tight to get him open looks from deep. He’ll get you that 3 pointer nearly half the time. I’m not suggesting that the Knicks should run the offense through Novak, but a few plays here and there would not hurt. Woodson hasn’t done that.

So if Woodson won’t do that, then Novak should sit right? If he can’t shoot he has no use right? That’s probably wrong too.

You see, I learned form watching John Starks in the 90s that if the defense didn’t double because they were afraid of leaving Starks open, then Ewing got a much cleaner look dominating his man one-on-one.

Currently, the Knicks have another elite one-on-one scorer. Setting up Novak on the same side as ‘Melo, whether ‘Melo is posting or on the wing, will either get ‘Melo a much cleaner look (if a team, like Chicago or Miami, doesn’t leave Novak), or Novak is going to get a clean look at a three.

So even if Novak isn’t getting screens for open shots, he still has serious value, even if he doesn’t shoot.

Lot’s of talk around the interwebs and the Twitters claiming that J.R. Smith’s performance last night was “clutch”.

How clutch was JR Smith last night? He scored 8 points in the final 4:40. Each bucket either tied the game or gave the #Knicks a lead.

April 12, 2012 1:25 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@IanBegley

Ian Begley

Indeed J.R. Smith did do the things that Mr. Begley pointed out. But that, the whole story, is not. Smith was actually 2/5 for the quarter. The two makes were from three. He also had 2 foul shots.  But that 2/5 stretch was part of a much longer 5/13, -12 stretch. For most of this longer stretch (e.g., the game), most fans on Twitter remarked that J.R. was killing (or synonym) the Knicks. Before the 4th quarter, his numbers looked even worse:

JR Smith is 3/10 and -22.

April 11, 2012 10:05 pm via Tweetbot for iOSReplyRetweetFavorite

@alanhahn

Alan Hahn

But I get what Woody is trying to do. Smith has always been feast or famine. He’s always been a streaky shooter so you know that at some point, you’ll be rewarded for being permissive with unabashed gunning. What good is a player like Smith if you aren’t going to allow him to be himself (especially when he makes other contributions, and lately he has been). Sooner or later Woodson’s faith in J.R. is going to be rewarded, with like 3 to 8 quick succession threes in a big game. And his shooting numbers will eventually revert to the mean (he’s shooting just 38% from the field this season despite a career average of 42.6%).

Two points: 1) Woodson’s faith in J.R. nearly cost the Knicks a couple close games with the playoffs hanging in the balance; 2) Let’s not pretend J.R. Smith “saved” us in either instance.

Jared Dubin of Hardwood Paroxysm decided he wanted to have a long email discussion with some smart Knicks observers. So he contacted Jamie O’Grady of the Journal News, and also, for some reason, me. If you like reading dense and long winded prose (and you’re here, aren’t you?), you’re sure to love this stuff. Enjoy!

Bonus: Jared uses my actual real name. You’ll have to click through for it. No tracking me down and harassing me, ok?

As part of their gameday preview I answered some questions for Raptors Republic. You can read the full text here. Thanks to Sam for asking me to participate.

Here’s what I said about who the next coach of the Knicks will be:

Sam: Who’s going to be coaching the Knicks next season?
Jon: It’s not easy to say at this point. There’s buzz here in New York that Phil Jackson is going to be the next anointed savior to take 40 or so million dollars of owner Jim Dolan’s money and try to turn this Knicks squad from lemons to lemonade. Color me skeptical, though.

More likely, the Knicks throw a bunch of cash at a big-name coach with lesser bona fides than Phil like John Calipari or Nate McMillan. I suppose the Van Gundy brothers could be in this mix as well if Dwight axes Stan or if Jeff and Dolan decide to kiss and make up.

And, of course, we shouldn’t discount the possibility that Woodson gets the gig permanently, at least not until he loses a game.

When the Knicks pursued Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets last year the vast majority of fans were willing to part with many, but not all, of the Knicks’ important players in order to land the volume scorer. Specifically, most were in favor of trading one, but not both, of the Knicks’ two young rising talents, Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, along with a few extraneous pieces. Fans understood what James Dolan never did: if Anthony truly wanted to be a Knick, he could sign as a free agent the following off-season without the Knicks losing much talent in the process.

Carmelo, for his part, wanted desperately to land in New York before the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement, which would enable him to sign a maximum contract extension under the old rules rather than risking free agency and settling for an undoubtedly still-lucrative deal. Carmelo’s leverage resided in the threat that if the Knicks did not trade for him immediately and provide him with a maximum contract extension, he would instead accept a trade to the upstart New Jersey Nets and sign a maximum extension with them instead.

That would leave the Knicks many other options to pursue. For example, Deron Williams, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard all became available. Additionally, Danilo Gallinari has continued his ascent towards stardom and could have continued to flourish as a Knick.

In forcing the Dolan’s panicky hand though, Anthony declined to follow the example of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, who all took less than the maximum deals they could have signed in order to play together while still leaving some space for a decent teammate or two. Indications are that Dwight Howard, who is angling to join the Nets, is reticent for the Nets to trade for him because he, like James, Wade and Bosh, wants the Nets to retain some quality pieces to surround him and star point guard Deron Williams.

So the Knicks caved. They traded Timofey Mozgov, Raymond Felton, several draft picks, Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler to ensure that they, and not the Nets, would wind up with Anthony. Anthony would get his money.

And he would be joining a team that was several games over .500 and playing a team-oriented brand of basketball for the first time in about a decade.

Almost from the start of Anthony’s Knicks’ stint there were murmurs that he was not interested in buying-in to coach Mike D’Antoni’s system which is predicated on ball-movement and spacing, since Anthony is a ball dominating, one-on-one volume scorer. When the Knicks struggled immediately upon Anthony’s arrival, team leader Amar’e Stoudemire beseeched his teammates to accept D’Antoni’s principles which had guided the Knicks during their successful first half run. After a scare, the Knicks ultimately made the playoffs last year but key injuries derailed their run before it started.

This season started off with the Knicks struggling and wallowing several games under .500. The team appeared unwilling to share the ball, spacing was off, and consequently the offense could not get off the ground. Most observers blamed, among other things, the Knicks’ lack of a point guard for the Knicks’ struggles. Then arrived the magical moment when Jeremy Lin took over the reigns of the Knicks offense and at least fleetingly appeared to prove those observers right. But lack of a point guard proved to just be part of the issue. Contemporaneously with Lin’s emergence, Anthony injured his groin.

With Anthony out, the Knicks won 7 games in a row by ascribing to D’Antoni’s coaching philosophy which required the team to spread the court, move the ball, and play with energy and passion on both ends. The Knicks beat several good teams including the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Lakers. Grumbles regarding D’Antoni’s shaky future turned into relieved exhortations that Lin “saved D’Antoni’s job”.

Eventually Carmelo Anthony would return from injury. The Knicks would promptly lose eight of ten and six in a row to find themselves back to where they started before “Linsanity” began. Anthony seemed unwilling to do many of the things that D’Antoni required from his players such as ball spacing, movement and passing. He sulked on the bench, declined to participate in huddles, lashed out at teammates for not bending to his will when he broke plays, and perhaps most damningly, was frequently outhustled, including by Kyle Korver, who beat Anthony to a lose ball in the closing minutes of a close loss to the Bulls by sacrificing his body to dive for it. Anthony, the Knicks “superstar”, stood and watched.

Stoudemire’s year-old calls for unnamed teammates to buy-in reemerged.

Anthony knew who the coach was before he asked to be traded to New York. He also knew that for the Knicks to trade for him, they would have to sacrifice much of their future, many incredibly talented young players who they could have kept if he was willing to sacrifice like some of the game’s other true stars. But he demanded the trade anyway in order to line his pocket. And when he got to New York, Anthony did not fit in. Rather he demanded that everyone else bend to his whims. That the culture change to suit him, instead of adapting to a system that had repeatedly proven itself in his absence.

It cost the coach his job, which according to Howard Beck of the New York Times, shocked and upset his teammates, many of whom came to New York specifically to play for D’Antoni.

Many fans do not care about any of this. They view Anthony as the Knicks most marketable player, their flashiest scorer, their leader, someone who can lead them to the promised land.

Others are of the opinion that even if ‘Melo does accomplish the impossible here in New York, it will feel off. It will be difficult to reward this kind of chicanery with what is left of the limited and repeatedly frazzled emotional stores that they can devote to the basketball portion of their consciousness. All of the worst stereotypes that these fans did not want to indulge about Anthony when they were talking themselves into trading their future for the man have come to pass.

But hey, at least he got paid.