The Knicks FanBlog

I should be writing about an impressive Knicks’ win, since throughout the game, and into the third quarter when the Knicks opened up a double-digit lead, the team finally showed an impressive level of teamwork. This continued a refreshing trend that has arrived like an oasis in a desert of awful, selfish, clueless, motionless basketball to start the year. In fact, you put your head down for a second to write a snarky tweet, it’s likely you would’ve missed a lob. The first three quarters last night were a lob fest. Lob-lob-lob-lobbedy-lob-lob-lob. Like this one:

That’s a play that took real teamwork, particularly ‘Melo’s back-screen to free Shumpert. In the first few games, when everyone was all, “Fire D’Antoni”, the Knicks were all standing around waiting for something to happen. We started to see some seeds expand in to saplings during the Washington game. The trust level expanded and bore fruit against Detroit and we saw more lobs and motion during the Pistons victory. And throughout the first three quarters last night we saw it again. (I also can’t underestimate the Shumpert/Douglas difference here.)

But how’d the Bobcats claw back from double digits? I think it’s because in the fourth quarter, the Knicks reverted to ISO ISO ISO MELO MELO MELO. Granted, when ‘Melo decided it was time to take over in the fourth quarter, he missed a lot of shots at the rim that he’d normally make, and the refs swallowed their whistles for a lot of non-calls they otherwise would’ve been made. But that may just reinforce the point: Why go away from what had been working and insert the whims of one player’s performance and the referees’ prerogatives into the equation?

This has also clearly been a trend throughout the fourth quarters this season. Jared Zwerling pointed out (via Seth Rosenthal) that ‘Melo far outpaces other Knicks in fourth quarter scoring. Let’s take a closer look (via StatsCube).

• Melo is taking an average of 19.9 shots per game.
• Of those, 6.3 come in the fourth quarter, or close to 31% of his total attempts (an equal distribution would, obviously, be 25%).
• Granted, he’s shooting 52% in the fourth quarter, which I’d gladly take.
• However, he also has a very high 49% usage rate during the fourth. By way of comparison, Kobe Bryant leads the entire NBA on a per game basis with a 36.1% usage rate (Carmelo is second at 31.5).

The result is that the Knicks will have to live and die with these ‘Melo ISOs in the fourth, and when the shots aren’t falling, and/or he isn’t getting the calls, the Knicks are vulnerable to late game implosions. In making this observation on Twitter last night, a bunch of folks asked me whether the fourth quarter ‘Melo ISOs are by design, or whether ‘Melo is selfishly usurping the offense. The answer is: I don’t know, but neither would surprise me. My hope though is that the team embraces teamwork, which has been driving the recent success, for four instead of three quarters.

JonKnicksFan Jon@knicksfan.net:

Through 8 games, according to Hollinger’s PER, Melo is enjoying a career season. His PER right now is 27. His best full season mark is 22.29.

The point is not to extol Melo’s great play as, of course, it’s a tiny sample size.

What’s interesting, though, is that Melo’s great start isn’t based on some unsustainable fluky thing, like a hot shooting start.

Rather, Melo is performing right around his career norms. In many cases at the top end, but not out of line w/ the past.

The only significant departure from Melo’s past performance is that he’s averaging about 1.3 assists more than usual per 36 minutes.

That extra 1 and a little bit of assists is giving him a five point burst in PER, to a level that would in theory make him an MVP contender.

What does this mean? Two things I think: 1) Melo has always been quite a bit better than he’s been given credit for.

2) I think it speaks to PER’s limitations as a mode of evaluation[].

Alright, look: I’m not defending the Knicks’ performance the last two nights. The team played rudderless ball, too often characterized by a pass and a heave. Very ugly. Reggie Miller caustically commented last night, “What kind of basketball is this?” I felt the same way. Pretty gross.

Twitter has just been ablaze with fans calling for D’Antoni’s head. I can’t say D’Antoni didn’t bring this on himself. From the moment he proclaimed the Knicks championship tinder, I felt uncomfortable. Whether the Knicks are ready for such proclamations, what ever happened to under-promising and over-delivering. Jamie O’Grady was prescient in this regard:

For better or worse, Gothamites tend to take each and every comment literally, and although the gist of D’Antoni’s point is valid – that this team has championship pieces, championship goals, and a championship price tag – he’s opened himself up to what will be scathing criticism and unrelenting pressure come June if the Knicks fail to deliver.

Well, forget about June. Fans were apparently willing to give D’Antoni no more than two losses before the Tweets and emails started rolling in begging for Phil Jackson (let’s make a deal: I’ll support the Phil/D’Antoni switcheroo after 3 games if you just get on the horn and make sure Phil’s on board before we ice D’Antoni, just in case) or Mike Woodson (…if you think the Knicks run too much ISO now…).

Yeesh. Sports fandom is an emotional pursuit, so often people don’t care for perspective, but as I mentioned on Twitter [1 (yea my numbers were wrong, it was late)], [2], [3], and as Dan Miranda nicely points out, this isn’t the first time the Knicks in general and D’Antoni Knicks specifically started out slowly:

The Knicks are not new to slow starts though. Last season, New York finished the first 11 games with a 3-8 record, then rattled off the next 13 of 14 wins. In the shortened 1999 season, the Knicks started 1-2 as well, then ended up in the NBA Finals against the Spurs in June.

Historically, Mike D’Antoni’s teams have gotten off to slow starts as well. In the 2006-07 season, the Phoenix Suns started 1-5 before they won 15 in a row. That team finished with 61 wins. In 2005-06, the Suns started 2-3, then looked back at their record in 15 games.

O’Grady hit the nail on the head again today:

Here’s the thing, though; a basketball team is only as good as its personnel, and until the Knicks’ “installation” is complete, blaming MDA for standard-definition performance on a high-definition set is as misguided as it is unfair.

At present, the Knicks have no point guard. Their PG-savior-in-waiting is weeks, perhaps more, away from beginning to learn the team’s offense.

New York’s second and third best on-the-ball defenders are injured.

We are only three games into the season. A season, mind you, that has seen an abbreviated training camp and just two preseason games, thanks to the lockout. Oh, and there’s that 50% roster-turnover since the 2010-11 campaign.

These incontrovertible facts would seem to suggest that D’Antoni deserves, like, more than one week before the apoplectic – in some cases politically motivated – media and fans scream for his deportation.

And despite the New York fan’s disdain for perspective, I thought I’d pile on a bit with some help from the trusty Basketball Reference. Here are some bad streaks (losses by 10 or more points) past Knicks teams have suffered:

• In 1971 (under Red Holzman – look him up) the Knicks made it to the finals against the Los Angeles Lakers (and lost), but on the way to the forum, they suffered a streak of three losses in a row by ten or more points. (1971-01-07 – 1971-01-14)
• The 1992-’93 Knicks, who won 60 games under Pat Riley, but lost to the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals suffered this exact fate, losing to the Blazers by 15, and then the Sonics and the Clippers by 10 each. (1992-11-16 – 1992-11-19)
• Your World Champion 1972-’73 New York Knicks shockingly lost two games in a row by 10 or more points as well. (1973-03-01 – 1973-03-03)
• And then, under Riley and TV announcer Jeff Van Gundy, it happened all these times:

So what’s the point? It’s chill, or as A-Z might say, “Sit back, relax, catchin’ contacts, sip your cog-nac”.

I’m not an old man, but I’ve been watching this team for two decades now, and I’m finding it amazing how worked up fans can get after two bad losses.

I’m no expert at advanced statistics but I do like to peruse for interesting nuggets.

Analyzing the material available on HoopData it’s clear that offensively, the Knicks’ problem last night was poor shooting from distance. The Knicks shot 4/21 from three (28.6%). If they had shot at last season’s average of 36.8%, they would have netted an additional 9 points in a game they lost by 14. Particularly at fault here was ‘Melo, who didn’t make a single one of his four threes.

Similarly, the Knicks shot 7/24 (29.1%) from 16-23 feet last night. At last seasons’ average of 39%, they would have scored an additional 4 points. Amar’e had the most misses from this range, shooting 2-9.

The Knicks could’ve made this a much closer game if their stars didn’t put forth an uncharacteristically disappointing shooting performance.

Also disappointing is the Knicks’ stars lack of presence at the hoop on offense last night. Amar’e took 2 shots at the rim yesterday (last year he averaged six). Similarly, Carmelo didn’t take a single attempt at the rim last night which is disappointing for someone who averaged five last season with the Knicks, and seven with the Nuggets. That’s unacceptable considering the 76.5% clip at which the team was making these shots.

The lack of interior offense is only partially attributable to Amar’e and ‘Melo’s lack of aggression. It’s also clear that the Knicks have no point guard who can get their star players good easy looks, much less direct the offense. From what we’ve seen, this results in too much ISO and standing around.

The Knicks need a floor general in the worst way.

Sources:

http://www.hoopdata.com/teamshotlocs.aspx?yr=2011&type=pg

http://hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Carmelo%20Anthony

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Amare%20Stoudemire

http://www.hoopdata.com/boxscore.aspx?id=311228009

Thanks to @Seth_Rosenthal and @LoHudKnicks for the idea.

Here’s a good list of questions for whoever scores the first interview with Mr. Lin.

The Knicks opened the 2011-2012 NBA season in style with a 106-104 win over their hated archival Boston Celtics.

Behind a heroic and efficient effort by star small forward Carmelo Anthony, the Knicks held on by the skin of their teeth as both Marquis Daniels and Kevin Garnett missed open shots to respectively win or tie the game.

The Knicks jumped out to a huge lead out of the gate and maintained a double digit spread through the first half. Power forward Amar’e Stoudemire displayed a new element of his game, nailing two first half three pointers. The three point shot could present a dangerous new offensive threat for Stoudemire, who hinted in the offseason that he was developing it.

The Celtics chipped away at the Knicks in the third quarter as the Knick defense, particularly Stoudemire’s, failed to maintain the intensity with which they started the game. Celtics forward Brandon Bass beat Stoudemire to too many rebounds which led to multiple second chance points for the Celtics on their third quarter run. Star point guard Rajon Rondo also sliced the Knicks up in transition as the Celtics charged ahead.

But the New York defense tightened up in the final frame behind center Tyson Chandler’s six blocks and help defense in the paint. Offensively, Anthony scored 17 points in the fourth to rescue the Knicks and help them ultimately take the lead for good.

Game notes:

*Anthony scored a hyper efficient 37 points on a mere 17 shots by hitting four three pointers and getting to the charity stripe 15 times (making 13).

*Chandler didn’t corral many rebounds (3), but he was extremely alive on both ends, constantly setting multiple picks on nearly every offensive possession, along with the aforementioned six blocked shots.

*Knicks fans had quite a scare when Celtics reserve Chris Wilcox rolled over the knee of Knicks rookie guard Iman Shumpert, who had to be helped into the locker room. Early word is that Shumpert has a sprained MCL and will be out two to four weeks.

According to Marc Berman, there is mutual interest between the Knicks and Kenyon Martin. Though he has been released by Xinjiang in China, the terms of his release prevent him from playing ball stateside until late March. Martin would  provide some great depth on both ends at both power forward and center as the Knicks storm the playoff gates and add a late season respite for Amar’e Stoudemire.

But there will undoubtedly be competition for his services.

The Knicks have the $2.5 million “room” exception to deploy. Other suitors (not Miami, thankfully) will have the full-midlevel. That late in the season though, any salary difference is likely to be less pronounced as it will be pro-rated. Martin’s desire to be here, if genuine, and the Knicks’ desire to bring him in, may overcome the small salary benefit another team may offer.

Berman also mentions mutual interest between the Knicks and Wilson Chandler. While fans would be thrilled to see Chandler back at the Garden, this scenario is exceedingly unlikely. Chandler is a restricted free agent, and Denver would be likely to match any pro-rated salary offer (certainly one as low as the “room” exception).

But are there defensive oriented front-court players available right now? Andrei Kirilenko is still out there, but if he could be had for the “room” exception, it would figure that he’d be a Net by now.

Most observers agree that Baron Davis is a low-risk/high-reward move. Count me as one of them.

I readily acknowledge that Davis has a history of injuries, lack of motivation, poor shot selection, and relatedly, a low shooting percentage. These are valid concerns. In arguing that the Davis signing is, at best, a low reward move, Mike Kurylo articulated them nicely on KnickerBlogger:

Davis’ shooting isn’t a strength. His career 3P% is a mere 32.1% (which considering he’s averaged a prodigious 5.2 3PA/36 is a ghastly percentage) and he hasn’t topped 34% in any of his last 8 seasons. He averaged 17.1 pts/36, but at an anemic 50.2% TS%.

Granted Davis is a skilled passer at 7.6 ast/36, however if that asset is tied to his shooting, then New York isn’t getting much of a positive in return. In other words if the Knicks have to suffer through Baron’s attempting to score at a rate of Chauncey Billips but connecting at a rate of Raymond Felton, then any court time could be a detriment.

For Baron Davis to be high reward for the Knicks, he’ll need to have his best year shooting (53.0% ts%, 2007), get healthy, and be made happy by D’Antoni (see Hughes, Larry). A slightly less compensating situation is one where Davis is limited to 10-20 minutes a night and severely cuts back on shot attempts while upping his three point percentage to his Charlotte days (35.6% 3P% back in 2002!) due to more open looks.

I have great respect for statistical analysis and I think that Mike’s take makes sense. However, this type of analysis is necessarily limited to the events and trends of the past. The difficulty lies in adapting those events and trends to new circumstances. Here, there are two overwhelmingly negative assumptions at play that I think (and hope) won’t necessarily hold in Davis’ Knicks stint.

The first assumption is that Davis is going to shoot as much as he has in the past. I’m not sure that will be the case. Say what you want about Davis, but far too often he’s been the first option on his team and one of the only players capable of creating his own shot. According to Davis:

“To play with this type of talent and the caliber of players we have on this team, especially our main guys, I’ve never really experienced anything like this in my career,” Davis said.

I think it’s true. Davis shouldn’t be asked to be the leader of this team offensively. Rather he should be a cog in the machine. Instead of trying to find his own shot, he should make life easier for Amar’e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony, who are more efficient. Thus, even if Davis continues to score inefficiently, the effect will not be pronounced.

And that leads into the second of Mike’s assumptions that might not hold, which is that Davis’ poor shot selection will continue. Make no mistake, defenses will have to respect Stoudemire, Anthony and even Tyson Chandler off of picks and dives. Douglas (and hopefully Fields) will spread the floor. Shumpert may be a dangerous weapon on the perimeter as a spot up shooter and/or slasher if Davis is able to collapse the defense (as he’s always been able to do throughout his career, despite frequent poor shooting).

The point here is that in addition to the likelihood that Davis will not shoot as much, he will also be presented with better opportunities to score. Defenses will be unable to double or trap Davis on the perimeter or collapse on him on drives. When Stoudemire and Anthony are doubled Davis will find himself open for spot-up looks.

Ultimately, I agree with Mike’s premise that if Davis continues to shoot poorly and often, he is unlikely to do the Knicks many favors. I’m just not so sure that Davis will do those things, this time.

This is the first time I’ve been on a flyer, so I expect you to all to come to The Knicks Blog’s “Jump Off” event this Friday, December 16 to celebrate a new Knicks year.

The event will be hosted by Anthony “Rice Balls” Donahue. Also in attendance with be Tommy Dee of The Knicks Blog, Seth from Posting and Toasting, the folks from Knickerblogger.com, Jamie O’Grady of @LoHudKnicks, Moke Hamilton of Bleacher Report, and Keith Schlosser of Knicks Journal.

The flyer (click anywhere on it for additional information):