Donnie Walsh has put the Knicks in position to sign at least two maximum salaried free agents. The Knicks will send Jared Jeffries and Jordan Hill to the Rockets for former all-star Tracy McGrady. The Knicks will also send Larry Hughes to the Kings. The Rockets will send Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey to the Kings. Kevin Martin will go to the Rockets and PG Sergio Rodriguez will come to New York. The Rockets will have the option of exchanging draft picks with the Knicks in 2011. The Knicks will surrender their 2012 first round pick to the Rockets as well, but it will be protected.
The move saves the Knicks $9,552,920 in 2010 and give the team a chance to build a dynasty by luring LeBron James and another elite free agent such as Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh. The Knicks will sacrifice the 22 year old Hill, who projects as a rotation player or low tier starter and a draft pick in 2012 that could be towards the bottom of the draft if the Knicks improve.
The draft pick in 2012 could be towards the bottom of the draft if the Knicks improve.
Even if the Knicks do not land James, they can explore infinite options to rebuild in the summer of 2010, by far the most talent laden of any forthcoming summer. If the Knicks do improve, there is a chance the 2012 draft pick they surrendered will be in the 20′s or higher. If that is the case, it will be easily replaceable for cash considerations. For example, Donnie Walsh purchased the rights to the 29th pick this year (Toney Douglas) from the Lakers.
The 2011 draft pick swap will be at Houston’s option. It is conceivable, depending on whether and by how much the Knicks improve, that Houston will not exercise its option.
Brian Windhorst of the Cleveland Plain Dealer called the prospect of this trade a “game changer.” “[A]n extremely well-connected NBA source” told Alan Hahn that “[i]f this trade happens, Donnie Walsh should be Executive of the Year.”
My own take? The Knicks are gambling, but the risk-reward calculus greatly favors a deal. The Knicks have increased the likelihood of landing one of the best, if not the best player to ever play the game of basketball. If they fail, they continue down the path of a middling 4-6 seed that would surely await them without the McGrady trade as they slowly improve and the superior teams slowly deteriorate over the next decade-plus. If they succeed, a new dynasty could be on the horizon.
This is what I have been waiting for all year, check that, three years. The New York Knickerbockers have put themselves in the position to get on of the greatest players of all time and compete for a championship every year for the next decade. Today is a day that could potentially change the entire history of the Knicks franchise. I am one excited Knicks fan!
…I can’t wait for the 30 for 30 version of this.
now I can finally say we got Sergio……. BRILLIANT DEAL ALL AROUND.
Who cares about pitchers and catchers now
so what of the nate trade who are we sending out with him. Can we try for a great day and ship out duhon and al for ridenhour and anything or is that asking too much
This is good, serious risk but worth it! Sergio!
Realgm reported that 2011 pick is protected if no 1. and 2012 protected if top 5.
Too bad we probably wont get tyrus as well though. that would have been sweeeeeet.
Dan/Jon,
Do you really feel the knicks are taking a gamble here? Even if they don’t land Lebron, the team is most certainly going to end up with two very good players this summer and will most likely not being a lottery team in 2011 or 2012. Losing Jordan Hill? I have to say from what I have seen his MAX upside in this league if quality starter and more likely a solid rotation man. There is always some risk in every deal but in my opinion the risk here is very very low.
Evan
I think this is a risk because I feel like if we cant land 2 max or lebron or wade on their own. I don’t think anyone else in this FA class is a serious game changer.
That and as a dedicated knicks fan for so long I am always scared of overpaying for too many years players that are good but not amazing.
I am still all for this trade esp since the picks are protected
No I don’t think it’s a risk.
The best case scenario is a dynasty. A good scenario is a very good team.
Would Jordan Hill and 2 mid to late lotto picks make the Knicks either of those things?
No.
Great move.
Chris,
I have similar fears about the knicks missing out on the big prizes in the 2010 fa class. In my opinion plan b should be hit rock bottom in 2010 and then make a push at the 2011 FA class with a top 5 pick in the draft. Realistically though that scenerio would never play out. Like it or not Donnie is going to spend that money this summer, there is not way that he and D’antonio will sit through another bad season. Given that when the opportunity to trade jeffries presented itself it was really a no brainer.
I agree whole heartedly. See my response above.
I think the risk is that the Knicks miss out on all the big guys (talking about Joe Johnson here too), end up with a bunch of mid-tier guys (a la Detroit last summer), and are left with no draft picks either because of the swap.
DW put all his chips in the middle with this. If it works, there could be multiple championships in store. If it doesn’t, the Knicks could be mired as a 6th or 7th seed with some cruddy long term deals for a while.
That said, Nothing about Donnie Walsh’s MO to date suggests that he is any kind of riverboat gambler. The fact that he was willing to do this deal indicates to me that he’s confident that he’s going to strike gold this summer in FA.
Time will tell.
I don’t fear the Knicks being a 7 or 8th seed for the next decade. If they did the slow build, they’d be no better than 4th or 5th for the next decade. Honestly, I’m not going to get all bent out of shape about that. Donnie went for the glory. I’d have done the same thing.
I would have too. You can’t pass up a chance at Lebron, especially when you have a real fighting chance like the Knicks do. You just can’t.
the price was way to steep.I’m sad right now.i figured with jamison going to the cavs that donnie would pull the picks back, but i guess not.next year whether lebron or wade come here we’ll wind up with two max free agents, and be mediocore for another decade.smh.why do people in this organization love dealing picks? seriously, its depressing.how many players has this ream develope since ewing? this is not baseball, and the knicks are not the yankees, they won’t be able to buy a championship.this is so depressing.
AM
Thanks for the buzzkill. Is the price too steep, only time will tell but for today and right now lets be happy. I am mr pessimist but I can find a reason to be happy. Now I hope we go get Dwade, JJ and A CENTER. not LEBUM.
I’m a realist.it will be 3 years in where we will have absolutely no control over our picks.and this does not mean we are going to sign 2 max’s.this means we can sign one, and have enough space to trade for another.
Where do you think those mid to late lottery or post lottery draft picks plus jordan hill were going to get the Knicks in the next ten years as they contend with LeBron season after season? That’s what I want to know.
so we signed lebron?
even if we don’t. we wind up in the same position as if we held onto those assets. that’s what you aren’t understanding.
at least now we have a better chance at lebron.
if we don’t sign him, we don’t win a title either way.
awesome.and we won’t have 2 1st round picks as well.lets celebrate.
Of course not but at least now they have a chance. I don’t think the knicks had any chance at lebron if they did not make this move.
Have to give props to Daryl Morey on this deal as well. He knew the knicks were desperate and took maximum advantage of the situation. kevin martin , jeffries (he will help them this year) and 2 first round picks is a nice haul.
lebron is is target number 1.the cavs are the best team in basketball, and added one of the most underrated players in the game; they just got better.considering the previous turn of events when the cavs landed jamison, someone explain how the gamble was worth it when are odds were slim to begin with?
i’ve tried to explain it like 20 times but here it goes again.
if you don’t get lebron you don’t win a title for 10 years.
with the trades, you’ve improved your chances to get lebron.
without the trades, jordan hill and two late lotto or mid round picks don’t get you over the hump.
with the trades but without lebron you improve and still wind up in an equal or better position to where you’d be with hill and two late lotto or mid round picks.
get it yet?
you don’t know that.you’re assuming like I’m assuming.what’s the difference between my assumption and everyone who agrees with this deal? we don’t get bit in the ass in the future like we will this upcoming draft.we cannot sign 2 max’s outright.we can sign one, and trade for another.couldn’t we use jeffires and curry’s exprings with hill and chandler to do the same? why give up essentially 3 first round picks?
To be honest I think the Kings made the best deal. I’d have rather held onto Landry and skipped the Martin part. Martin’s contract could look really bad in a couple of years. He’s a one dimensional player and always injured.
Hill and the picks was a great haul for T-Mac, but the Martin part was a mistake for Houston IMO.
On the plus side, it helped the Knicks get Sergio. And he’s my favorite thing about the deal for this season.
The odds are certainly greater than slim. The cavs are the best team in basketball because of Lebron James. Take Lebron, add another max player, throw in the current knicks roster, sprinkle in a couple vet minimum guys who would come to ny to win a title with lebron, and that team is as good or better than the current cavaliers team. If Lebron really wanted to stay a cav why would he have not just signed a max extension by now? One word answer: Cleveland. .
they just got better.that is something that not even the foolish whom assume james is headed here can deny.when you’re talking about max you’re talking about money.you’re not talking about the player.imo, this is better than adding amar’e.jamison’s game has more substance than amar’e's.
I don’t understand the Nate trade from a knicks point of view other than it being just to get rid of him. If as reported the knicks do not get a draft pick they basically did the Celtics and Nate a favor. Trade a guy who is an immediate upgrade for Boston and get in exchange Eddie House and 2 guys who will never play? It makes bo sense, I guess D’Antoni muct have told Walsh ” YOU HAVE TO GET RIDE OF THIS GUY!”
I think D’Antoni is a big Eddie House fan. But I also think the trade was just to get rid of Nate. I’m fine with it.
we cannot sign 2 max’s outright.we can sign one, and trade for another.
AM – I believe this is incorrect. The reason for the deal was exactly so the knicks could sign 2 max free agents.
I have a question for anybody who may be more cap savvy than myself. Can the knicks sign two max free agents and david lee? would that work under the bird laws?
They can sign two max FAs if they execute a buyout with Eddy Curry for a little more than $1 million.
That shouldn’t prove to be too difficult because Curry can make the money back on a league minimum contract and those are almost 40% subsidized by the league. You can read all about it here: http://www.hoopdata.com/recent.aspx?aid=158
But if it does prove difficult, the Knicks also have the ability to offer David Lee or Al Harrington and a massive trade exception in a sign and trade to Toronto for Bosh or for whichever player might want to come over with Lebron. This method may end up being the preferred route because the player would get to keep his bird rights.
at least next years pick is top 1 protected and top 5 in ’12.at ez, the cap is projected at 54 mill. max contracts start at 30 percent of the cap.do the math.I don’t want to.
someone already did. Knicks can fit 2 max guys. http://www.hoopdata.com/recent.aspx?aid=158
So happy about this, sergio is a great pickup and in Mike’s system can be a really great pickup, move aside duhon!
Although i dont think we will get lebron, whats wrong with getting joe johnson and boozer, resign lee and have gallinari, sergio and chandler, i dont know about u guys but that sounds pretty damn good.
The only thing that salvages this deal for me is landing Sergio who I like a lot because I think he’s better than his face value stats, young and still has upside.
Now I can at least say to myself we traded Hill for Sergio and gave up pick value to get rid of Jeffries. That’s better than giving up Hill and picks to accomplish the same.
Overall though, I feel the same.
Unless the Knicks land a FA talent UNIQUE to 2010 (either James, Wade or Bosh), then this trade was a bad move. They could have easily signed 1 FA in 2010, and then when Jeffries and Curry come off the books in 2011, made another substantial move and KEPT Hill, and the pick value to add usable players and/or trade assets.
To me, this is VERY CLEARLY JAMES, WADE, BOSH or BUST.
Yeah you are right Italian Stalion, it is very “all eggs in the one basket” scenario.
I just can’t see Lebron moving but Wade/Bosh/Stoudemire or Johnson/Boozer, for sure, but i’m sure people only want one of those combo’s after a trade like this.
Now we have Houston and Utah praying the Knicks stuff up in a real bad way and collect those picks….
Donnie sure is going t be busy…..
I should add that I think this is the most likely scenario.
1. Lebron resigns with the Cavs for 2-3 years taking him to 27-28 years old and still young enough to make a move then.
2. Wade either resigns with Miami or goes to Chicago.
3. Bosh either resigns with Toronto or goes to Miami.
4. The Knicks wildly overpay for an overrated player like Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay, Amare etc… and cripple themselves for at least 5 years as a 3-5 seed with no way to improve because they have no space and fewer picks. They are forced to try to rebuild again when they can get rid of those bad contracts. (see the Pistons who overpaid last year because they felt they had to do something with their cap space)
If the Knicks would not have made this move, they could have continued to develop the young players, added picks, bought picks, selectively used those assets to upgrade via trade, picked up FAs in 2010 and 2011 but only if they represented good value etc… and had a chance to eventually win a championship in time. It would have been a lot slower and the 2010 team would not have been very good, but further out things would have been very bright.
This is James, Wade, Bosh or BUST.
No matter what they do, no matter what strategy they employ, the Knicks aren’t getting passed LeBron in the playoffs.
Stallion, one thing I think you may have overlooked is that you don’t know what the state of the league is going to be in 2011. After the inevitable, massive renegotiation of the CBA, the Knicks may not have any cap space in 2011, let alone enough to sign any FAs of consequence. If the Knicks had held onto their assets and only signed one max player this summer, it could turn out that 2010 proved to be the Knicks only bite at the apple and that reality could relegate the Knicks to mediocrity for a very long time.
Now, I get that the CBA issue cuts both ways. If the Knicks don’t get Lebron there’s a good chance that they’ll have signed two lesser players to max deals that could prove to be an even bigger millstones under the new CBA.
Still though, I think that the Knicks had to go for it in 2010. No one knows exactly what the future holds or what the league is going to look like post-lockout. All we know is that this summer might the last chance the Knicks have for a while to remake themselves as a great team.
I just don’t believe that waiting and building methodically was a safe option. No question the course the Knicks have decided to pursue could backfire big-time, but I still think it was the only course the Knicks could take.
I haven’t thought enough about what a hard cap might look like and how high it will be, but I would bet my life against a dollar that NBA revenues will be higher for the 2010 season than for the 2009 season. The recession is basically over.
If I had to guess, I would say the there’s going to be a very slow adjustment to the players vs. owners share of revenue.
For example.
Let’s say NBA revenue grows 6% for the year. Instead of the cap going up 6%, it might only go up 3%. They will do that for “Y” years until the new agreed upon relationship is reached.
I disagree which way was safer.
IMO the Knicks took far the riskiest possible option. There is 1 and only 1 way to win this bet. James/Wade/Bosh and someone else very good.
There are loads of ways to win the bet the other way. It’s just a longer and more difficult path. It’s also harder to imagine it because we can’t see the possible draft picks, deals that might come up over time as we accumulate assets, luck we might have in the draft, injuries that could occur to players on other teams ay key time (like Wade, James etc..), what some of our current assets will become in 3 years etc…
It’s a value calculation.
IMO there is no doubt at all we gave up more value than we received, but we did so because this path has a quicker and bigger upside if we win. But IMO if we made the same bet 1000 times, IMO we would win more often not making this bet.
To be clear, it’s not like I think we will be bad next year. I am 100% certain we will be better in 2010 this way than by not doing the deal. So we have that much to look forward to. However, when you start looking out to 2011 and 2012 it gets closer.
If we over pay for guys like Johnson, Gay, Amare etc… because we strike out this summer and Walsh feels he has to do something, I hate to say it, but I’m done with this team forever.
I’ve been suffering since the Frazier and Reed days and I’ve had enough of it. I’ll pick a team (like Houston, Portland, the Thunder etc..) that I think is well managed and that has players on it that I like and try to develop the same emotional attachment I have for the Knicks over time.
I have to just hope I am wrong about this summer. If I am, feel free to remind me about it regularly but know that I am hoping I am very wrong.
Stallion,
Don’t go. We like you. You’re a good Knicks fan.
If the Knicks don’t get LeBron, take solace in the fact that under any scenario, whatever team he is on will regularly knock us out of the playoffs.
We missed you on Twitter today.
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But Dan L Orlando knocked out Lebron last year?
It’s true, they did. And nothing would make me happier than Orlando doing the same thing this year, although it’s looking less likely (though I didn’t think they could do it last year either).
However, without LeBron or Kobe, it’ll be exceedingly difficult to get through the Magic as well.
Dan L, we selected a quote for one of your pieces as one of the 20 Strong Voices on the McGrady Trade. If you have time, check it out at 20 Voices: What Is Being Said Around The Blogoverse About The Knicks’ McGrady Trade
Good thoughts on the cap Stallion.
Oh Sorry. That would be at http://www.KnicksFanaticsBlog.com or http://www.knicksfanaticsblog.com/2010-articles/february/what-is-being-said-around-the-league-about-the-knicks-trade.html