Chris Paul is a transcendent player. To this point he’s putting together a career that would probably make him the second greatest small man to ever play the game. And he was born to run Mike D’Antoni’s system.
Still, with Paul wanting out and the Knicks on his list of preferred destinations, Donnie Walsh needs to be a little bit wary here.
And not only for the reason explained in Dan’s last post, though that’s a very good reason in and of itself. But also because, as great as Paul is now, the Knicks could end up paying an exorbitant price in talent and flexibility for a player that can’t put the Knicks over the top on his own and may be washed up within 5-6 years.
Here are the issues as I see them:
1. Point guards who profile similarly to Paul tend to have short careers. Paul dominates the NBA from a very low perch. He’s only 6’0 tall or thereabouts and he plays an intrepid game that relies on other worldly speed and quickness and the ability to take a pounding in the paint. Players of note with similar physical profiles who also liked to play amongst the trees: Isiah Thomas, Calvin Murhpy, Kevin Johnson, Stephon Marbury, Allen Iverson, Kenny Anderson, Damon Stoudamire. All those guys were washed up by their early 30s.
2. Paul has a degenerative knee condition. Yes he is only 25. But his left knee is much older. Paul suffered a torn meniscus–the cartilage around the knee area that serves as a shock absorber–and underwent arthroscopic surgery last season to have the condition cleaned up. The injury stands to get worse over time, though, and players who suffer from it tend to lose cartilage to the point where their knee ultimately becomes bone-on-bone. To appreciate what that means to a player, think back to Tim Hardaway and Charlie Ward late in their careers when they struggled to even change ends and were literally dragging one leg up and down the court.
3. Would it make the Knicks good enough to win a title? As Dan explained in his post, any Paul trade would deplete the Knicks’ pool of young talent and eat up all the team’s hard earned cap flexibility. If Amar’e and Paul have something like a 5 year window where they’re likely to both remain dominant players (and that’s all I think it’s fair to project that they have), will a team built around those two be good enough during that timeframe to compete for a championship? Especially considering that the Heat’s big 3 will be barnstorming the league during the exact same 5 year period? I’m not so sure…
4. Other great point guards are poised to enter the free agent market over the next two years. If the Knicks pass on Paul, Tommy Dee has sources saying that Tony Parker is almost a lock to be Broadway bound next summer. Parker is no Chris Paul (he’s not really even an ideal fit for SSOL) but he’s a star player who has won 3 championships and was a Finals MVP in 2007. To say that his resume is more impressive than Paul’s in the areas that actually count is an extreme understatement. Parker will be 29 next season and he faces the same longevity concerns that I addressed earlier in the post, but a Parker deal won’t cost the team nearly as much money and he won’t deplete the talent base or jeopardize the Knicks’ long-term cap flexibility.
That said, I think the Knicks would be wisest to pass on Parker as well and, if they do, there may be an even bigger pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Paul is not the only elite PG who has groused recently about his team’s inability to put a championship caliber core around him. Deron Williams has watched the Jazz lose Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver this summer–two winning players who complimented his talents perfectly. They responded by adding Al Jefferson, a productive albeit unproven big man, but I’ll go on record now that even in the best case he won’t be an ideal fit in Jerry Sloan’s pick-and-roll centric sets. No question the Jazz took a step back this summer and it’s very clear that their superstar noticed.
Williams doesn’t carry with him any of the concerns I detailed above vis a vis Paul. He doesn’t have a significant injury history and PGs of his size and strength have played at a high level well into their late 30s (see Kidd, Jason; Jackson, Mark). If the Knicks were able to sign Williams in 2012, he could potentially serve as the foundation for a long run of championship level teams with Gallinari and Randolph as part of a talented and dynamic supporting cast. To me, this would be the best possible outcome by far.
Sometimes an opportunity presents itself that, when viewed in the context of a team’s overall situation and potential alternatives, is just too good to pass up.
But given the position the Knicks are in right now, is casting their lot with Chris Paul one of those opportunities? I’m not so sure.
I sincerely want no parts of CP3. We’ve gotta get rid of this “swing for the fences” mentality. We have a strong possibility of becoming the East’s answer to the Thunder. I like our youth, cap flexibility, and am legit excited to watch this team next year. Any CP3 trade would destroy that and give us inflated expectations.
Said in two sentences what I rambled on about for paragraphs in a comment on the previous post.
I fully agree. Though as I keep saying, I would make the trade under the condition that we only trade one of gallo/Randolph and don’t take back okafor.
The Knicks just can’t be compared to the Thunder. OKC is admired in large part because of Durant. No one on the Knicks nears him. They also have Westbrook, who trumps any of Gallinari, Randolph, or Douglas. And they had draft picks. There’s no point in having cap space if you aren’t going to use it. The Knicks need another big-time player. If they don’t use their cap room on CP3, they’ll go for Carmelo, who needs a PG. He’s taken huge steps forward with Billups – he won’t with Felton or Douglas.
Honestly, the Knicks best chance might be the next few seasons. Amar’e will still be at his peak, and it’s often overlooked that cap room will dip if the team is intent on keeping Gallinari and Randolph for the long haul. In two year’s the Knicks will have hefty offer sheets to match – for all we know they may not even be room for a Deron.
Your point about Durant is fair. I thought of it too actually but decided not to go there because Amar’e is a superstar in his own right (obviously not on Durant’s level).
Anyway, yes the Knicks will have hefty offer sheets to match in 2 years but a lot can happen in the interim including, each guy raising his value far beyond what it is now, and ultimately, when they become RFA’s, sign and trades.
Excellent post by the way.
Thanks.
1. I’d say Paul’s also a more dynamic player than those you listed. Other PGs like Nash, Maurice Cheeks, and John Stockton all had similar bodies to Nash yet did not fall off a cliff at 30. Paul’s 25 – a six-year contract would bring up right up to age 33. It’s risky to base decisions off of perceived injury tendencies.
2. Even if the condition does worsen, Paul will still be able to contribute at a high level. He has a great jump shot and court vision, and while not being able to slash as well would hurt, he would still be a big plus.
3. Who would help more than Paul? Carmelo wouldn’t.
4. The Knicks tanked two years for LeBron – they can’t risk losing some of Amar’e's prime years and Gallo/Randolph under their cheap rookie deals for the good chance that there will be a more attractive option for Deron. If they’re presented with the opportunity to acquire a top three PG now, they can’t avoid it in favor of Deron and all the uncertainty two years from now.
The problem is that it’s not “perceived injury tendencies”. It’s a surgically repaired and permanently damaged knee from which there is ZERO proof he is recovered enough to be a productive as he was before.
I think we should think long and hard about how much we are willing to risk on two max type players BOTH of whom could go down at any time with knee issues.
I was referring to the list of PGs who fell off after age 30, but even if Paul’s lost a step, I’d still consider him a perennial All-Star.
And I think that there’s similar risk in wasting Amar’e's prime years and the rookie contracts, especially with no major draft picks to speak of. The team could sign Carmelo, but he’s not going to be the player to put them over the top. As in any trade, there’s risks on both sides. Do we know Gallinari will become an All-Star? Do we know Randolph will become the next Lamar Odom? The Knicks have invested too much in winning within the next five years to find out if it means missing out on a bona fide star.
I take issue with the notion that Paul is a more dynamic player than Isiah. Isiah is the greatest small player there ever was. There’s nothing Paul does better than Isiah did it.
If dynamism is somehow connected to career longevity (and I don’t believe that it is) then Isiah is the ultimate outlier to that theory.
That said, while I think comparing the careers of similar players from the past is a very good way to steer clear of making a bad trade or a poor long-term investment, I agree with Stallion that it’s mooted somewhat by the fact that the player already has a degenerative condition.
If Paul is still an elite player in his mid 30s, it’ll be an extreme upset.
Thank you for your post.
I was getting pretty tired with Tommy Dee’s rants over at TheKnicksBlog, in which he’s basically saying “nuh uh…. we got plenty of assets – Randolph, Gallo, Toney Douglas, etc. C’mon Hornets GM, look at all this talent we have and give us Chris Paul”. You outlined my concerns perfectly:
- We still have zero idea about Chris Paul’s knee, and whether he has even recovered well enough. Last time I heard, his surgery was designed to allow him to get back onto the court quicker, but at the cost of the knee’s longevity. Not very promising.
Note that nobody on TheKnicksBlog has even mentioned anything about Paul’s knee problems. Not even remotely.
- We will be trading away the farm, so to speak, if we give away Gallo, Randolph, and whatever other young talent is needed to get back Paul and/or Okafor (you can be sure that Okafor is going to be involved in any trades). My ultimate concern is that this will end up as “Isiah tenure 2.0″ – trading away the future in order to win now. Yes, it will be done more competently (Paul and Stoudemire are vastly better than any of the washed-up 1999 All Stars that Isiah got us), but it will still result in disappointment.
Personally, I like the team as-is, and am excited to see what happens. As for Chris Paul – despite what I’ve said, I still like him, bu I’d like to see if he’s still the same player before trading for him.
Rubio. Rubio. Rubio…
At this point, I couldn’t be happier with the team.
We are very young, athletic, have terrific upside, have players that will compete at both ends of the court, players that do exciting things, enough talent to make the playoffs, and every player on the team with the possible exception of Curry is a high character likable guy that’s going to be easy to root for.
What more could we want at this point?
We are probably going to have to add one more star player either at the trade deadline or next year to become contenders (unless both Gallo and Randolph explode beyond optimistic expectation). I just sort of hope that the cost does not involve either Gallo or Randolph because I love both of them. If Donny can figure out a way to add another star player without giving up either of them I’ll contribute to the statue of him they’ll put on 34th St.
By the way, I wouldn’t mind adding Rubio at all. In fact. I’d love it. I just don’t see any way to get him from Kahn without giving up a ton because he has so much invested in that draft pick that if he gives him up, he’s going to have to be able to make a clear cut case to the fans etc… that he got great value for that pick. Kahn may make mistakes and do some strange things, but he’s not insane.
Italian Stallion, I agree with you 100 percent. I am also so excited about what we have right now. Obviously we need to see them on the court together, but it seems they will be starting the season with some defensive minded players. And even though Amare’s D has been in question, I think just the fact that he will be representing New York and the big turnaround will be enough to make him more of a defensive player… he certainly has the talent to do it, and I think the fans will ignite him into a better player. And with the athletic length they have, I am looking forward to other teams thinking twice about driving to the basket. Would love to pick up another shooter and, of course, another star.. but right now there is the personnel to play hard on both ends. I am very interested to see how D’Antoni does with this new roster. It’s his time to put his talent as a coach to work and install a winning attitude in these guys. This might not be the Ewing defensive crew, but it’s closer to them than we have been since he left….very exciting.
While I am all for getting CP3 and willing to give up some assets my real problem is if you give it all up, AND take designated bad contracts of Okafor and Posey, aren’t the the knicks then just Hornets. Sure they are slightly better because Amare is better than David west but statistically and in generally they are the same kind of player: a PF that can score rebound decently and doesnt play amazing defense.
I prefer the idea of trying to pick up melo, and honestly seeing how the new younger knicks turn out. Randolph has the ability to be amazing (although has the same ability to be a complete dud). and Gallo has been looking better and better.
I wish the knicks had also signed Shaun Livingston, has potential for a comeback and could be a good pairing for toney douglas so he could be the off guard and switch on def.
Almost a moot point right now since the hornets are not looking to trade paul