It’s the start of Chris Paul’s lame duck year in New Orleans, so it’s also officially the start of the free agency silly season.
There is one thing that should be absolutely clear about the Chris Paul situation: He’s leaving serious money on the table if he makes any other decision besides to stay in New Orleans. Only New Orleans can offer him a deal with full bird rights under the new CBA. (See link to source below.)
John Hollinger specifically singles out the Knicks [Insider] in minimizing their chances to sign Chris Paul because if the Hornets are convinced that Chris Paul wants to leave, they will certainly trade him to a team that can return more than Chauncey Billups’ expiring deal, Landry Fields, and Toney Douglas. He points to the Clippers as a more realistic trading partner because they have more “assets”.
That line of thinking is flawed however because it assumes that the new CBA, by eliminating a player’s incentive to seek an extend and trade through a lessening of years and dollars available in such deals, puts the owners in control of where they would prefer to send a player when in fact, the opposite is true.
Under the new CBA, players who are part of extend and trade transactions that take place within six months of the start of free agency are eligible for exactly the same years and raises as players signed outright as free agents (their ability to land a max deal is delayed by six months post-trade). While that might lead some players to be less inclined to seek such deals (and instead stay with their current teams), players aren’t robots, and it will not be universally true. That means that Chris Paul could be traded to the Clippers, but the Clippers could only offer him the same years and money as the Knicks. So, sure, the Clippers could offer the Hornets DeAndre Jordan, Eric Gordon and the Taj Mahal for Chris Paul, but Paul has no financial incentive to stay with the Clippers instead of switching over to the Knicks. (Assuming the Knicks have max space. Also, this isn’t just limited to the Knicks by the way. Paul will have every incentive to see what the market will bear as an unrestricted free agent.)
In reality, it is irrelevant that the Clippers have more assets. All that means is that they’d be giving up more value than the Knicks would, just to rent Paul. At the end of his contract, he will have no incentive to sign an extension that would net him the same as a max free agency deal. Thus he would be compelled to test his worth in free-agency.
As much as certain writers and probably NBA owners will hate to admit it, Chris Paul will drive this process.
UPDATE: I also want to clarify how much Paul might lose by choosing the Knicks vs. the Hornets or another team.
If he stays with the Hornets, Paul could get sign a new 5 year deal when his current deal expires, with 7.5% raises. Hollinger calculated the difference between this and a free agent deal with the Knicks to be about $40 million.
If he goes to a team with max cap room (not the Knicks) he could immediately sign a 4 year deal (note, one year in excess of what he could get with New Orleans) at 4.5% raises starting at $17ish million.
If he goes to the Knicks, who Hollinger estimates will have $13.5 million available, he could take that entire $13.5 million, also at 4.5% increases, for 4 years.
So, as Hollinger points out, he’d be leaving a TON of money on the table to leave the Hornets. But that’s true no matter where he goes. If he’s intent on leaving, you should compare what a max team can offer him versus what the Knicks can offer him. He’d be leaving (rough estimate) $14-$16 million on the table over four years to choose the Knicks over another team in free agency.
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Source: PDF linked in this Sam Amick article, point 13.
I agree that there has been a fundamental shift in the incentives that bodes well for the Knicks.
I read that the cap for 2012 will remain at 58m. I haven’t been able to verify that though. The Knicks have 39.4m locked up for 2012/2013 with Amare and Melo assuming they amnesty Balkman if need be. However, I think we can assume they are going to sign Shumpert and maybe even Jolts and Jerome Jordan. So there may be other contracts on the books for next year. Then they will still have to fill out the rest of the roster with cap holds either way.
So that means CP3 is going to have to take quite a bit less than the max if he wants to come to NY via FA. He’s making 16.35m this year and was scheduled to make 17.8 in his option year next year.
Can we count on him to take a sharp reduction in pay and much less than Amare and Melo just to play in NY when there may be other contenders that can offer the max?
IMO that’s a legitimate question.
IMO the trade scenario works better because I believe the Knicks could remain over the cap, give him the max, and he could lock in his new contract sooner in case he’s worried about his knees (almost all players prefer to lock in max money sooner even if they aren’t at higher risk for injury like Paul)
Then it’s a matter of if he can force NO to trade with the Knicks like Melo did because we can almost be certain that there are teams that can offer more than Billups’s expiring contract, Fields and some combination of Shumpert/Douglas etc…
It not like he can say “if you don’t trade me to NY I’m going to NY in the summer”. Well, he can say that, but he can’t get the max that way. So NO can simply say “no, we have a much better deal on the table and if you don’t extend there, you can’t get the max in NY anyway”.
Plus, we really don’t know if Paul is as hot to play in NY as Melo was. Melo was very clear that it was NY or bust and NY could give him the max. Paul may be happy on any major contender.
I don’t want to seem negative because there is a strong indication that Paul wants to come to NY, Melo wants him here, the Knicks want him here, agents seem to want him here, and Melo/Paul are good friends. But I think it’s not as clear cut that this can or will happen as it was with Melo.
It depends on Paul’s priorities.
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Note: He won’t get max money from any team he’s traded to. Even if he’s traded to the Knicks, the Knicks can’t max him out like the Hornets can. Nor can the Clippers or any other team.
There’s some additional wrinkles, but that’s an important point to realize: There’s no incentive to seek an extend and trade vs. a free agency signing. Literally the ONLY incentive, is to stay.
I was just reading an article about Nene describing the same situation.
He can’t get the max in a sign and trade, but he CAN get more than in a trade than he could in NY as a FA. It’s the Knicks 2012/2013 cap space that’s limiting the issue. Once they put two max players on the roster, they hurt their flexibility a lot. That’s why Wade/James/Bosh all took discounts. It was the only way to fit 3 max stars.
There’s still an incentive for him to come to NY via trade, just the level of incentive has changed.
http://ken-berger.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/11838893/33584531
BY the way, thanks for the clarification that “max” for NO is not the same as “max” for everyone else.
He’ll make the money up on endorsements, etc.
You’re right. Paul will definitely have to take less to join the Knicks. But it’s important to point out that he’ll take less to go ANYWHERE other than New Orleans. If he leaves, there is really a marginal difference in total earnings between the Knicks and another team.
Listen all this talk about how many millions cp3 is going to lose,how about all he has to gain coming to the KNIX…if CP3,MELO & STAT WIN A CHIP IN NYC,THEY WILL BE SUPERHEROS RIGHT NEXT TO BATMAN AND ROBIN & SPIDERMAN..THE CLOUT,THE MONEY,THE BRAGGING RIGHTS,THE SWAGG WILL BE CRAZY…ITS GOING TO MAKE THAT 40MIL LOOK LIKE CHUMP CHANGE….O AND I GUARANTEE JDOLAN WILL GIVE THEM 20MIL A YR FOR LIFE,A CHANNEL EACH ON CABLEVISON TO DO WHAT EVER THEY WANT AND TO TOP IT ALL OFF EXPECT STAUTES ALL AROUND THE GARDEN AS BIG AS THE GARDEN….I MEAN LOOK WHAT HES DONE FOR ALLEN HOUSTON AND KEEPS DOING…$@%!….LMFAOOO…THIS IS COMMON SENCE…CP3 WILL BE A KNICK FOR BETTER OR WORSE,EVEN THO DWILLIAMS IS LESS INJURY PRONE AND BIGGER…BUT NO MATTER WHAT WE GET A THIRD STAR AND WE SHOULD WAIT FOR THAT STAR!!!!!!VOTE NO TRADE!!!!!!-DK
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