At this point interested observers far and wide have tried ad nauseum to calibrate the odds that Lebron spurns the Cavaliers and joins the Knicks next summer. The majority of these efforts tend to be based on misinformation and “gut-feel” speculation about what the speaker believes would be sensible or appropriate for Lebron to do.
Today, RealGM.com contributor Louis Roxin posted what’s only the world’s latest stab at trying to put the King’s options in proper perspective. However, two things set this article apart from so many of the others:
- It’s factually accurate (if a bit optimistic in spots).
- I believe it reveals Donnie’s (not so?) big secret about the team’s extra cap leeway.
From an accuracy standpoint, the best thing Roxin accomplishes is debunking the biggest Lebron myth (or at the very least misleading statement) routinely espoused by the mainstream sports media. Namely, that the Cavs can offer Lebron a far more lucrative contract than the Knicks can. While that’s technically true, it’s only a function of the fact that the Cavs can offer Lebron an extra year at the end of his deal. The truth, though, is that the extra year is irrelevant because Lebron isn’t going to sign a 6 year deal with anyone. The only number that matters is the annual average. As Roxin writes:
Over the same five years, LeBron would earn $4.14 million less signing with the Knicks than re-signing with the Cavs as a free-agent. The Cavs can offer an extra year, but there is little reason to think the security of a 6th season will be decisive. If LeBron put much value on security, he would have sought a longer-term contract in 2006 rather than the 3-year extension he did sign. If security is what he is after, LeBron would have already signed an extension this off-season. Given the relatively small difference between the Cavs’ and Knicks’ 5-year max offers – and given the mountain of endorsement dollars that could come LeBron’s way if he lands in New York – LeBron could have a significant financial incentive to sign with the Knicks.
In addition, while making his 10-point case for why the New York’s chances of landing Lebron are better than advertised, Roxin also reveals what I believe DW may have been addressing when he cryptically referred to extra wiggle room that the Knicks have under the 2010 cap:
If the Knicks are a few million dollars short of the cap room needed to offer a second max contract in 2010, look for Donnie Walsh to engineer a buyout of the 2010-2011 season on the contracts of Curry and/or Jeffries. Because this is the final year of these contracts, the Knicks would receive dollar-for-dollar cap relief on any buyout. For instance, offering 80% of the salary due on the last season of these two contracts would buy the Knicks more than $3.5 million of additional cap room.
I’d imagine that this extra buyout space is probably also being factored into any decision the team makes regarding Ramon Sessions.
At any rate, the article may be a bit optimistic (particularly about Gallo’s future per game averages and the size of the 2010 cap) but, considering the nature of the recent Knicks coverage by the national media, Roxin seems almost subversive in his refusal to treat Lebron’s return to Cleveland as a foregone conclusion. Considering how dour things are becoming around here while we wait for Donnie to do something, it’s well worth a read.
